2026 Outlook for Logistics & Supply Chain

As 2026 gets under way, much challenge and uncertainty will confront logisticians as global trade continues to adjust to the new world order ushered in by massive change in US tariff policy beginning in early 2025.

 It is possible that tariffs begin to subside as a daily disruptive factor in supply chains, as the Trump administration eases back from its tactics seen throughout much of 2025. Ahead of US midterm elections on November 6, 2026, policy will be increasingly guided by cost impact on consumers given its potential as a decisive political factor in the elections.

 Already in November 2025 the US administration scrapped tariffs on beef, coffee, tropical fruits and a range of other commodities in response to a perceived need to mitigate high consumer prices that could be a factor in the midterms.

 This could mean that the daily head-turning headlines seen during the first half year of the second Trump administration could begin to recede, allowing supply chain leaders to adjust to remaining tariffs amid an environment of less uncertainty.

 Another big issue logisticians may confront in 2026 is the Red Sea diversions. There is growing geopolitical pressure on container lines to restore normal routings between Asia and Europe and Asia and the North American East Coast.

 Egypt is desperate to eliminate a problem that has cost it billions in lost toll revenue since ships begin diverting in late 2023 to avoid attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. And with the Oct. 13 peace conference held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt attended by Sisi, US President Donald Trump and representatives of 20 countries, the Israel-Hamas peace agreement was ratified by an international coalition.

 The peace conferenced endorsed the October agreement between Hamas and Israel to end the war in Gaza, the event that led the Houthis to start firing on shipping in late 2023. So in theory, peace between Israel and Hamas peace should end the attacks and re-open the waterway.  

 But from carriers’ point of view, Israel-Hamas peace remains tenuous, meaning that were they to restore routings through the Suez and the extensive re-working of shipping networks that would entail, not to mention predictions of months of port congestion in Europe and the North American East Coast, it all could be set in reverse if Houthi attacks were to resume.

 Could things come to a head in 2026? It’s certainly possible.