By Raymon Krishnan, FALA, FCILT, CLP
For years, many logistics managers have been chasing a ghost: the “return to normal.” We have spent millions of dollars and countless hours waiting for the volatility of the early 2020s to subside, dreaming of a world where schedules are fixed, the Suez Canal is a given, and rates follow a predictable seasonal curve.
I have news for you: That “stable” world is dead and frankly did not really exist even before the pandemic. As we move through 2026, the data and facts are clear. Supply Chains will continue to operate in a permanent state of “structured chaos” or to place an optimistic spin on this perspective, a state of continuous evolution. If you are still planning your budget based on historical decade-averages, you aren’t just behind the curve, you are a liability to your company’s bottom line – and unfortunately there are many Logisticians who still think and operate that way.
The Demand Mirage
On the surface, the numbers look healthy. Global demand is up 4% Year-to-Date, a figure that would usually signal a steady, manageable recovery. But look closer. This is not growth in the traditional hubs. It is being driven by secondary trades out of Asia—fragments of trade that are harder to track, more expensive to service, and more susceptible to disruption. We are seeing a “de-centering” of global trade, and most logistics networks are not built to handle this level of fragmentation.
The Ghost Fleet
The most dangerous metric in the industry right now is “Fleet Growth.” On paper, the fleet is growing by 4% Year-over-Year. In a vacuum, that should be enough to meet demand but in reality, we are dealing with a “ghost fleet”.
Between port congestion hitting a staggering two-year high, the mandatory Suez detour that shows no signs of meaningful resolution and the secret weapon of the main-line operator, the blank sailing, used to control capacity and hence demand and in turn rates, our effective capacity is being cannibalised. Ships are on the water, but they aren’t at the berths. We are effectively trying to run a 2026 economy on a 2016 infrastructure, and the cracks are widening.
The Suez Delusion
The industry is currently obsessed with the “Return to the Suez.” Every minor geopolitical headline triggers a wave of speculation that the shortcut will reopen and save our margins.
This is a dangerous delusion.
Even if the Red Sea were to become perfectly safe tomorrow, the logistical whiplash of rerouting the global fleet would take months to settle. We do not expect stable, reliable services through the Canal until mid-2026 at the earliest. Any shipper betting their Q3 or Q4 strategy on a Suez reopening is effectively gambling their inventory on a coin flip.
Rates: The New Floor
Finally, many shippers held out in late 2025, hoping that rates would eventually correct back to pre-crisis levels. It’s unlikely that it will. Futures indicate that 2026 rates will hold firm at late-2025 levels, creating a new, permanent floor for the cost of doing business. Carriers are no longer playing defense; they are aggressively pushing for increases ahead of seasonal peaks, knowing that they hold the cards in a capacity-constrained market.
The Verdict
2026 is the year we should understand that stability in our Supply Chains is a pipe dream. Volatility is the norm and agility and resilience should be a permanent feature of our playbook. The winners this year won’t be the companies with the lowest contracted rates, they will be the companies with the most agile routing and the highest tolerance for the choppy reality of how modern supply chains. Those who understand and leverage this will thrive and those that do not will be left in the doldrums wondering what happened.
The gamble isn’t whether the market will disrupt; the gamble is whether you’ll be ready when it does. This opinion editorial is not meant to provide insights or solutions but hopefully stir an emotive response and get logistics leaders to engage, think, strategise and implement a solution that works for the supply chains they manage.
Strategy and solutions are going to be the mainstay of LogiSYM Global that takes place on 22nd January and I hope to see you there as this conversation takes place with globally renowned panelists.
Sign up for LogiSYM Global here – EVENTBRITE LINK
Dr. Raymon Krishnan
President
The Logistics and Supply Chain Management SocietyDr. Raymon Krishnan is the President of the Logistics & Supply Chain Management Society (LSCMS) with over 25 years of experience in global supply chain and logistics operations. He has held senior roles across multinational companies and advises on supply chain strategy, compliance, and trade. A regular speaker at industry events, Dr. Krishnan is widely recognised for his leadership in advancing supply chain professionalism in the Asia-Pacific region.
About the author
Dr Raymon Krishnan
President · The Logistics & Supply Chain Management Society