An Era of Fast Evolution and Innovation

Utilizing Modern Resources as a Strategic Advantage

Supply chains across Asia Pacific are operating in an era where disruption is no longer episodic, but structural. Cargo crime, counterfeiting, cyber intrusion, geopolitical volatility, and climate-driven events now intersect with unprecedented frequency and impact. In 2025 alone, intelligence data recorded more than 488 cargo theft incidents and 516 counterfeit cases across APAC, with direct cargo losses exceeding USD 30 million and indirect counterfeit losses estimated at USD 2.4 billion. These figures are not abstract statistics; they represent halted production lines, compromised customer trust, regulatory exposure, and long-term erosion of competitive advantage.

What is equally concerning is not just the scale of loss, but the evolution of criminal behaviour. Supply chain crime is becoming more targeted, more organized, and more technologically enabled. Criminal groups increasingly exploit predictability in logistics operations, weak points in digital integration, and fragmented visibility across multi-tier supplier networks. Against this backdrop, traditional supply chain strategies focused primarily on cost efficiency and speed are proving insufficient. The imperative has shifted decisively toward resilience, scenario planning, and proactive risk management, supported by intelligence-led decision-making and industry collaboration.

At its core, modern supply chain risk management is no longer about reacting faster after disruption occurs. It is anticipating risk before it materializes, understanding where vulnerabilities lie, and designing response mechanisms that allow operations to continue even under adverse conditions. This forward-looking approach is increasingly essential as disruptions arise from a wider range of sources and propagate more quickly across interconnected supply networks.

Data Intelligence and Insights from 2025 Cargo Crime Trends

Recent data intelligence from 2025 annual reports shows persistent and evolving risks across the region. While the total number of reported incidents in 2025 remained broadly consistent with previous years, the financial impact fluctuated sharply between quarters, indicating a trend toward fewer but higher-value losses. This also shows selective targeting by criminal groups, often informed by insider knowledge, surveillance, or exploitation of operational routines.

Cargo crime is rarely opportunistic. Patterns observed across incidents suggest coordinated activity by experienced groups that share methods, adapt quickly, and repeatedly exploit successful approaches. These include the use of fraudulent documentation, impersonation, infiltration of legitimate operations, and, in some cases, intimidation or violence. Such dynamics reminds and highlights the importance of risk assessments that go beyond isolated incidents and instead focus on systemic exposure and repeatable vulnerabilities.

Nearly Half of Cargo Crime Occurs at Facilities and Vehicles In-Transit

Analysis of incident locations revealed a clear concentration of risk. Facilities accounted for 22.7% of reported incidents, while vehicles in transit accounted for 26.2%, meaning nearly half of all cargo crime occurred in these two environments. These locations represent predictable points in the logistics chain where goods are stationary, staged, or temporarily unattended.

Warehouses, distribution centres, and manufacturing facilities typically operate on fixed schedules with known access points. When access controls, perimeter security, or monitoring systems are inconsistent or outdated, they provide attackers with opportunities to observe routines, test defences, and time intrusions. Similarly, vehicles parked at unsecured locations, rest areas, or staging zones remain highly vulnerable, particularly when drivers are absent or distracted. This risk profile is consistently reinforced by both academic research and industry data, which identify unattended vehicles as one of the most frequent loss scenarios.

The dominant modus operandi across incidents remains intrusion, accounting for 39.3% of reported cases. This includes breaching physical perimeters, bypassing access controls, and exploiting weaknesses in surveillance or alarm systems. The persistence of intrusion as a leading tactic highlights a critical reality for supply chain operators: security measures cannot remain static. Controls that were effective even a few years ago may already be well understood and circumvented by organized criminal groups.

Product Targeting Reflects Economic Motivation

The distribution of stolen goods further illustrates the commercial logic behind cargo crime. Food and drink (12.7%) continue to be a frequent target due to high demand and rapid resale potential. However, categories such as tools and building materials (10.7%), miscellaneous goods (10.2%), and auto parts (9.8%) also feature prominently.

Auto parts are closely associated with organized criminal activity. Components such as catalytic converters, electronic modules, wiring harnesses, and specialized parts command strong prices in secondary markets and are difficult to trace once removed from legitimate supply chains. This further supports why it is important for sector-specific risk assessments that consider not only volume, but value density, resale liquidity, and traceability.

Cyber Risk Escalation and the Responsible Use of AI

Alongside physical threats, cyber risk is rising sharply as supply chains accelerate digital transformation. Greater reliance on interconnected logistics platforms, procurement systems, vendor portals, and cloud-based services has expanded the attack surface available to threat actors. Recent TIS reporting highlights multiple cyber incidents targeting supply chain operations across APAC, ranging from data theft and industrial espionage to ransomware and extortion schemes involving the release of customer and employee data.

These attacks rarely stop at a single organization. A breach at one supplier, software provider, or service partner can rapidly cascade across an entire network, disrupting operations far beyond the initial point of compromise. As artificial intelligence and automation become more embedded in supply chain processes, risk management strategies must evolve in parallel, integrating cyber and physical security planning rather than treating them as separate domains.

The Hidden and Expanding Impact of Counterfeit Goods

Counterfeiting represents one of the most damaging and often underestimated supply chain risks. In 2025, 15 APAC countries reported counterfeit incidents, with India, Vietnam, and the Philippines among the most active reporters. While this reflects significant illicit activity, it also points to increased enforcement and detection capabilities in these markets.

Large-scale seizures across Vietnam, South Korea, and the Philippines are examples of the operational maturity of counterfeit groups, which increasingly leverage both physical distribution channels and digital marketplaces. The range of affected products, from luxury goods and apparel to cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and everyday consumer items, shows how counterfeiters diversify based on demand, margins, and ease of infiltration.

Beyond direct revenue loss, counterfeit goods generate substantial indirect and long-term consequences:

• Brand and reputation damage, particularly when substandard products reach consumers
• Market distortion and lost sales for legitimate manufacturers
• Tax revenue losses for governments
• Public health and safety risks, especially in regulated sectors such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and food

These impacts show why the need for end-to-end visibility, authentication controls, and closer collaboration between brand owners, logistics providers, and enforcement agencies are heavily encouraged.

Collaboration and Intelligence Sharing as the New Operating Model

Resilience is not built in isolation. Organizations that actively share incident data, risk insights, and best practices across their supply chain develop a more accurate and timely understanding of emerging threats. Open communication with suppliers, logistics partners, and customers enable faster response, more coordinated mitigation, and quicker recovery when disruption occurs.

Increasingly, leading organizations view resilience not as a cost centre, but as a strategic capability. By embedding risk assessment and scenario planning into everyday operations, companies are better positioned to protect service continuity, safeguard reputation, and support sustainable growth even in an environment defined by uncertainty.

The Way Forward

Supply chain resilience must now be treated as a core business capability. Intelligence-led risk assessment and scenario planning are essential to anticipating disruption and sustaining performance in a volatile environment. By using data as a strategic advantage, strengthening collaboration across partners, and continuously adapting security and risk frameworks, organizations can reduce exposure, improve visibility, and respond with confidence. The supply chains that succeed will be those that evolve alongside emerging threats rather than reacting after disruption occurs.

“As shown in the findings of TIS for 2025, cargo crime has increased by 40% from 2023, criminal groups are becoming more targeted, more organized, and more technologically enabled. That means our approach to securing supply chains must evolve just as quickly, grounded in insight, scenario planning, and continuous improvement.” – Tony Lugg, Chairperson, TAPA APAC

Read the TIS Annual Report 2025 – https://tapa-apac.aflip.in/TISAnnualReport2025